Mon, Sep 9, 2024

Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services

Kroll experts provide an overview of key trends shaping the outlook on fixed-asset services to aid our clients in navigating complex challenges.
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Against a backdrop of economic distress and geopolitical tension, 2024 is poised to be a year of opportunities, risks and growth. In this article, Kroll experts share some key trends that are shaping the outlook for fixed-asset services and property valuations globally. For insurers, insureds and risk managers, the key themes we are monitoring revolve around navigating complex challenges, embracing uncertain scenarios, and emphasizing the importance of frequent valuations, verified asset data and accurate financial reporting.

Key Trends to Watch Out for

Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
Cost Trends–Buildings, Labor, and Plant & Machinery
Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
Untapped Insurance Market Opportunities
Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
M&A in PPA and Energy
Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
Increased Scrutiny of Fixed Assets
Midyear Outlook on Fixed–Asset Services for 2024

Cost Trends—Buildings, Labor and Plant and Machinery

Impact of socioeconomic activities on labor costs: Socioeconomic activities, such as population growth, urbanization, migration, and income levels, affect the supply of and demand for labor in the construction industry. Higher demand for labor leads to higher wages and benefits, which increase the cost of labor.

Lack of qualified personnel has a negative impact on machinery and equipment manufacturers where skills shortages are more pronounced, especially in innovation-intensive companies. Higher attrition rates mean companies are required to invest more time and money in training new workers, upskill current workers or pay higher salaries to keep skilled talent from moving to competitors.

Supply chain issues impacting prices and availability of raw materials: Supply chain issues, such as disruptions, delays, shortages and price fluctuations, affect the prices and availability of raw materials in the construction industry. These materials, such as steel, cement, wood and sand, are essential inputs for buildings, plant and machinery.

Supply chain issues can result from factors such as natural disasters, war, pandemics, trade wars, tariffs, sanctions and environmental regulations. These factors can cause higher energy costs and disruptions in the production, transportation and distribution of raw materials, which can lead to higher prices and lower availability.

Need for more up-to-date verified data on costs and trends: The construction industry is dynamic and complex, with many variables and uncertainties affecting the cost to construct buildings, labor rates and plant and machinery costs. There is a need for more up-to-date verified data on costs, which can help industry stakeholders make informed decisions, plan effectively and manage risks.

Recent Kroll research found that 67% of buildings were underinsured by an average of 64%. This can be attributed to the wrong method being used when estimating declared values or appropriate up-to-date construction cost data not being used.

Lack of reliable sources for regional cost data : There is a lack of authentic sources for regional cost data, which can provide relevant and comparable information on the costs and trends of buildings, labor, and plant and machinery in different regions. The lack of authentic sources for this data can lead to inaccurate estimates in areas where detailed information is scarce.

In-country regional cost data sources are often overlooked, although the differences between the regions within the same country might be significant. For example, the same building constructed in Munich, Germany, can be more than twice the cost than if built in Emden, Germany.

Other Trends to Watch Out for

Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024

Untapped Insurance Market Opportunities

  • Increased focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG), environmental footprint and modeling of “green” reinstatement costs.
  • Private equity portfolios looking for an all-asset-encompassing tech-enabled valuation provision
  • Property management companies looking to diversify valuation providers, move away from relying solely on large real estate firms
  • Reinsurers pressing insurance companies for accurate valuations across insurance portfolios or major global corporate risks
  • The hard insurance market continues, resulting in continued pressure on insureds to provide current values and data.
  • Increased dependency on natural catastrophe (NatCat) modeling driving an increased need for construction, occupancy, protection, exposure (COPE) and secondary COPE data collection and reporting
  • Many large corporates have been proactive in creating valuation programs in recent years, but plenty have been slow to react due to cost or time constraints.
  • Continuing concerns related to undervalued schedules given inflationary construction cost increases since 2020 and unreliable historical values.

M&A Deals and Purchase Price Allocation (PPA)

Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
  • Expected uptick in M&A deals/purchase price allocation work in the coming months
  • Industries to watch out for: telecom, infrastructure, transportation, construction, manufacturing, energy, pharma and health care
  • Increased need for inventory reconciliation
  • Different trends being observed globally

M&A in Energy and Utilities

Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
  • M&A in energy and utilities should continue in 2024 in line with 2023. Disrupting effects continue, including OPEC keeping oil prices high, geopolitical issues and government policy.
  • Large drivers are likely to be energy transition, adoption of new technology and critical minerals, and energy companies repositioning for 2035 decarbonization targets.
  • In oil and gas, 2023 saw consolidation with several megadeals happening. This should continue into 2024.
  • In utilities, repositioning to obtain energy security looks to continue, particularly in Europe. In the U.S., the law   could affect how capital is deployed.
  • Miners should continue to be positive, with minerals like copper and lithium remaining highly sought after. Mid-tier miners working with minerals like gold   and other precious metals could look to optimize and build scale.
  • Companies have strong balance sheets and are looking to get the most from them

Increased Scrutiny of Fixed Assets

Midyear Outlook on Fixed-Asset Services for 2024
  • Historically fixed assets were perceived as a low-risk area and received little audit scrutiny.
  • Post-COVID-19, on-site asset verification has resumed, and auditors are scrutinizing fixed assets more rigorously, especially within the health and hospital verticals.
  • Deficient fixed-asset records can lead to inaccurate financial reporting, qualified audit opinion and damaged credibility.
  • Increase in corporate and financial disputes could lead to more questions around the fair value of fixed assets.
  • Property Taxes are the single largest and least understood below-the-line expense for investments in US based fixed asset-intensive companies. There is an opportunity for institutional investors to better forecast and manage current and future liabilities when proper attention and scrutiny are paid.
  • Suggested frequency for fixed-asset valuations has reduced to 1–3 years due to inflation volatility and managing budgets/expectations for insurance renewals.

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